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Active Hurricanes | WeatherBug

Tropical Storm Chantal has made landfall in northeastern South Carolina this morning

Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall near Huntington Beach in northeastern South Carolina this morning. Now a tropical depression, it will continue to weaken rapidly as it moves over the Carolinas. 
 
As of 11 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Chantal was located near 34.4 N and 79.2 W, about 20 miles northwest of Lumberton, N.C., or 80 miles west of Wilmington, N.C. Chantal is packing top sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving north at 9 mph. It has a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, or 29.74 inches of mercury. 
 
Tropical Depression Chantal will track to north today and will eventually make a turn to the north-northeast tonight into early Monday morning. Chantal will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours, likely becoming a remnant low pressure system tonight. It would then dissipate completely by Monday afternoon. 
 
Despite weakening, Chantal will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Rain amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally 6 inches are possible near the coast. An elevated risk for flash flooding will continue into Monday. Some leftover rain could occur in eastern Virginia into southern Maryland and Delaware on Monday. Rain amounts will generally be less than an inch. 
 
Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur along the South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina coasts. Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts cannot be ruled out throughout the day today. Life-threatening rip currents will be possible over portions of the East Coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states today and Monday.&nbsp; 
 
It is time to prepare for the hurricane season. Create a hurricane evacuation box now, before the storm, with bottled water, extra cell phone chargers, food and clothing. Scope out multiple different evacuation routes in case your preferred route is blocked or traffic jammed.

Chantal Rapidly Weakening After Early Morning Landfall

Barry makes landfall as a tropical depression over Eastern Mexico Sunday evening.

While Barry made landfall as a tropical depression on the east coast of Mexico Sunday evening, heavy rains will likely continue over portions of eastern Mexico for the next couple of days. 
 
As of 4 a.m. CDT, the remnants of what was Tropical Depression Barry was located near 23.0 N and 99.2 W. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 30 mph as it moves to the northwest at 12 mph. Its minimum pressure is 1008 mb, or 29.75 mb. 
 
Barry will continue to move inland over eastern Mexico and will quickly dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico today. 
 
The greatest concern from this system will be heavy rainfall. Totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas through today. There could also be isolated rainfall totals up to 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 
 
The strongest winds are expected to occur to the north of the center along the coast early today. 
 
Although the U.S. is not at risk from this tropical system, its development serves as a beacon that it is time to prepare for the hurricane season. Create a hurricane evacuation box&nbsp;now,&nbsp;before the storm, with bottled water, extra cell phone chargers, food and clothing. Scope out multiple different evacuation routes, in case your preferred route is blocked or traffic jammed. 
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The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially started on June 1, has been slowly ramping up, as last week saw the short-lived Tropical Storm Andrea in the central Atlantic. This is about in line with climatology, as June typically has only a couple of named storms.

Barry Makes Landfall As Tropical Depression Over Eastern Mexico

The season's first Atlantic tropical storm will dissipate overnight.

Andrea, the Atlantic&rsquo;s first tropical storm of 2025, will become post-tropical and dissipate overnight. 
 
As of 11 p.m. AST, Tropical Storm Andrea was located near 38.7N and 45.2W, or about 985 miles west of the Azores. Andrea is packing top sustained winds of 35 mph and is chugging northeast at 20 mph. Andrea has a minimum central pressure of 1015 mb, or 29.98 inches of mercury. 
 
Andrea is poorly organized in the North Atlantic, absent of deep thunderstorms surrounding the center of the tropical storm. Cool water, dry air, and an unfavorable environment will be Andrea&rsquo;s ultimate demise overnight. 
 
Andrea will only move over open North Atlantic, posing no threat to land and only marginal impacts to shipping lanes. 
 
WeatherBug partnered with meteorologists from AEM have predicted an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The team has predicted 14 to 20 named storms, six to ten of those becoming hurricanes and three to five of those becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic Hurricane Basin produced an average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes per year. 
 
With the tropical season heating up, it&rsquo;s time to prepare for the season. Start organizing portable phone chargers, a radio, batteries, non-perishable food, water and blankets into an evacuation kit now. While fair weather is in your area, take the opportunity to scout out multiple evacuation routes from your area in case your preferred route is traffic-jammed or blocked. 
 
Check with WeatherBug throughout the season for the latest on the tropics.

Tropical Storm Andrea Forecast To Dissipate Overnight

AEM forecasts a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

AEM released its 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, forecasting a slightly above-normal hurricane season. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and covers the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. 
 
The AEM Meteorology Team predicts 14 to 20 named storms forming, with six to ten becoming hurricanes and three to five of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. This is above the long-term Atlantic season average. Between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic Hurricane Basin produced an average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes per year. &nbsp; 
 
&ldquo;ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist through the summer and into fall, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is present across the key monitoring region of the Pacific Ocean,&rdquo; said Matt Mehallow, AEM Meteorologist. &ldquo;In the absence of El Niño, wind shear patterns across the Atlantic Basin are expected to be relatively favorable for hurricane development this summer and fall,&rdquo; added Andrew Rosenthal, AEM Meteorologist. &nbsp; 
 
El Niño contributes to increased wind shear, changes in wind direction and speed with altitude, in the Atlantic hurricane basin. This elevated wind shear makes it more difficult for tropical systems to develop, and those that do often struggle to intensify. In contrast, La Niña and neutral conditions typically lead to reduced wind shear in the Atlantic. Lower wind shear creates a more favorable environment for tropical systems to organize and strengthen into tropical storms or hurricanes. 
 
&ldquo;With neither El Niño nor La Niña as a decisive influence this season, factors that are less predictable months in advance may play a larger role in shaping overall activity,&rdquo; stated Rob Richards, AEM Meteorologist. A strong West African Monsoon could enhance hurricane activity by generating frequent and vigorous tropical waves that move into the Atlantic Main Development Region. 
 
Conversely, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a mass of very dry, dusty air originating over the Sahara Desert, can suppress tropical activity as it drifts across the Atlantic. SAL activity typically ramps up in mid-June and peaks from late June to mid-August, with new outbreaks occurring every three to five days. The warmth, dryness, and strong winds associated with the SAL act to limit tropical cyclone formation and intensification. 
 
Last year featured well above-average activity, with a record-breaking ramp up following a peak-season lull. Twelve named storms formed after the climatological peak of the season in early September. The Atlantic basin saw 18 named storms in 2024, 11 of those were hurricanes and five intensified into major hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., with two storms making landfall as major hurricanes. It was also the first since 2019 to have multiple Category 5 hurricanes. 
 
The World Meteorological Organization retired the names Beryl, Helene, and Milton from its rotating name lists due to the severity of the damage and number of deaths the three storms caused. 
 
Remember, it only takes one hurricane to cause devastating winds and storm surge. If you live in an area vulnerable to hurricanes, now is the time to prepare. Update your emergency plans, refresh your emergency kits, and ensure your flood and hurricane insurance policies are current.

AEM Predicts Above-Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Sara will bring heavy rain to Central America through early Monday before dissipating.

Tropical Storm Sara will bring heavy rain to Central America through early next week, and it is expected to weaken and dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula. 
 
As of 9 a.m. CST, Tropical Storm Sara was located near 17.1 N and 88.4 W, or about 30 miles south-southwest of Belize City,&nbsp;moving west-northwest at 6 mph. Sara has just made landall, holding maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1001 mb, or 29.56 inches of mercury.&nbsp; 
 
Tropical Storm Warnings&nbsp;are in effect along the Caribbean coast from Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico through the entirety of the Carribean coasts of Belize and Guatemala. 
 
Tropical Storm Sara has struggled to intensify thanks to its interaction with the mountainous terrain of Central America. However, the flip side of this has been very heavy rainfall across northwestern Honduras, where totals could reach 30 inches, if not higher. Additionally, rain totals of 10 to 20 inches from Sara are expected through most tropical storm warning areas. 
 
Heavy rain and gusty winds will be found across the southern Yucatan, with the land mass likely to rip apart Sara&#39;s circulation. Whatever remains of Sara as it exits the Yucatan is questionable, but some of its moisture could bend northeastward across the Gulf,&nbsp;pair up with a cold front and bring moderate to heavy rain to Florida during the middle of next week. 
 
Thus far, the Atlantic tropics have tallied 18 named storms to go along with 11 hurricanes and five &ldquo;major&rdquo; (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes, all of which are well above average. Although the hurricane season &ldquo;officially&rdquo; ends on November 30, numerous storms have formed in the tail end of November and challenged Santa Claus for December superiority. Keep checking WeatherBug for the latest on the tropics throughout the year.

Tropical Storm Sara Makes Belize Landfall

Tropical Storm Rafael has strengthened and it could have some U.S. impacts later this week.

Tropical Storm Rafael has strengthened&nbsp;and it could have some U.S. impacts later this week, depending on its track. 
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As of 1 a.m. EST, Tropical Storm Rafael was located near 16.7 N, and 77.6 W, or about 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 295 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 996 mb or 29.42 inches of mercury. The system was moving north-northwest at 12 mph. 
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A Hurricane Warning&nbsp;is in effect for the Cayman Islands and&nbsp;for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.&nbsp; 
 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila.&nbsp;Tropical Storm Watches&nbsp;are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas. 
 
Additional&nbsp;Tropical Storm Watches&nbsp;have been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as the Dry Tortugas. 
 
Tropical Storm Rafael will move in a north or north-northwest direction over the next few days, with the storm moving close to western Jamaica today, and into Cuba by midweek. Rafael will slowly intensify, becoming a hurricane by this afternoon.&nbsp; 
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Once it moves across Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm&rsquo;s prospects aren&rsquo;t quite so bright. Much of its strength will be zapped by the mountainous terrain lining Cuba, and then the system will have to contend with dry air and increasing wind shear as it maneuvers the eastern and central Gulf. 
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The forecasts are mixed on exactly what, if any, condition the system will be in as it approaches the Gulf Coast, but it is likely that heavy rainfall can be expected next weekend from the central Gulf Coast to Florida. Parts of the western Florida Keys could see stronger impacts from this system, with drenching downpours and strong winds. 
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November is not typically a month with a lot of hurricanes &ndash; typically a storm forms on average once per November. However, storms such as 2022&rsquo;s Hurricane Nicole can still cause significant damage. Keep watching the tropics through the season&rsquo;s end on November 30.

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